Traditional forecasts — even “weighted” ones — only tell part of the story.

Most sales teams rely on a roll-up forecast where each opportunity is multiplied by its close probability. That gives you a single number: your weighted forecast.

But when real-world decisions hang in the balance — like hiring, budget approvals, or investor updates — one number isn’t enough.

You don’t just need to know what the weighted outcome might be.

You need to know:

How likely are we to hit this number?

That’s where Scenario Forecasting comes in.

The Problem With Weighted Forecasts

Let’s say your weighted forecast is $100K. On paper, that sounds solid.

But what if that number is based on one deal: a $1M opportunity with a 10% close probability?

Technically, that math checks out: $1M x 10% = $100K.

But what’s the likelihood you actually close $100K?

Just 10%.

Which means there’s a 90% chance you close nothing — and your hiring plan or marketing spend is built on sand.

That’s the flaw in weighted forecasting. It shows the average, not the likelihood of hitting a specific number.

What Scenario Forecasting Does Differently

Scenario Forecasting flips the question:

Instead of asking “What’s our weighted number?”

You ask:

“What’s the probability we close at least $X this quarter?”

You can input any revenue threshold — $100K, $800K, $2M — and the model will show you the likelihood of hitting it, based on:

• Real, deal-level probabilities

• Historical win rates by rep, stage, segment

• Deal velocity and risk signals

• Forecast category and activity health

This isn’t just “stage-weighted.” It’s signal-based forecasting that reflects how your team actually performs — down to the individual opportunity.

Why It Matters

Scenario Forecasting helps revenue and finance leaders:

• Make higher-confidence decisions around hiring, spend, and growth

• Avoid false confidence from oversized or long-shot deals that inflate the forecast

• See the full distribution of potential outcomes, not just one average

• Plan proactively around likely revenue floors and ceilings

It adds the nuance you need to think like a CFO, not just a CRO.

A Forecast You Can Plan Around

Most forecasts tell you what’s “expected.”

Scenario Forecasting shows you what’s likely — and how confident you should be in any number.

Instead of saying:

“We’re forecasted to hit $1.2M this quarter”

You can ask:

“What’s the likelihood we hit at least $1M?”

“How likely are we to close $800K or more?”

“What’s our worst-case floor with 90% confidence?”

And you get real answers — grounded in real data — not gut feel or rep optimism.

The Bottom Line

When decisions hinge on revenue — and they always do — you can’t afford to plan off a single weighted number.

Scenario Forecasting gives you visibility into how likely you are to hit any goal — so you can plan smarter, manage risk better, and stay ahead of surprises.

If your current forecast doesn’t let you pressure-test outcomes, it’s not complete.

Want to see what Scenario Forecasting looks like inside RevdUp?

Let’s talk.