A sales forecast is only as good as the rep-submitted numbers it’s built on. But every rep has a different forecasting style, making it difficult to trust the roll-up. It’s time to replace gut feel with a data-driven method for creating an accurate forecast.

The Challenge of the Manager Roll-Up

The forecast roll-up is a fundamental practice for sales teams. The problem is that not all rep submissions are created equal. Traditional forecasting processes often rely on subjective inputs from sales reps, leading to variability from two common personas:

• The Optimist: This rep has “happy ears,” focusing on positive signals while ignoring negative ones. They let intuition cloud their judgment, leading to consistently inflated forecasts that rarely materialize.
• The Sandbagger: This rep is gun-shy, perhaps from a previous bad quarter. Avoiding risk is human nature, so they are hesitant to commit deals even with strong buying signals. This leads to under-projections that mask the team’s true potential.

When a manager has a mix of these personalities, how can they create a reliable forecast? Trusting every number is a recipe for disaster, but manual adjustments are inconsistent.

The Solution: A Forecast Reliability Profile

To solve this, you need to bring science to the art of the roll-up. While traditional methods underperform with complex data, a Forecast Reliability Profile is a data-driven tool that assesses each rep’s historical forecast accuracy. It replaces guesswork with objective analysis.

A Forecast Reliability Profile works by analyzing a rep’s past performance. It answers a simple but powerful question: When this rep submitted a forecast on this specific day of the quarter, what percentage of that forecast did they actually close?

For example: A rep is halfway through the quarter and submits a $100,000 Commit forecast. Their Forecast Reliability Profile shows that, historically, at this point in the quarter, they have only closed an average of $75,000 of their committed deals. Their reliability is 75%.

This method provides an objective way to enhance the reliability of revenue projections. Instead of guessing, managers get a quantified, historical view of each rep’s tendencies.

How RevdUp Delivers Forecast Reliability

This level of analysis is nearly impossible to perform manually in spreadsheets. That’s why we’ve built Forecast Reliability Profiles directly into the RevdUp platform, turning complex historical data into a simple, powerful indicator.

Here’s how RevdUp makes your forecast roll-up more accurate:

1. Seamless Rep Submissions: Reps submit their Best Case and Commit forecasts directly in RevdUp. As they do, the platform auto-calculates suggested forecast values based on historical win rates for that specific rep, forecast category, and point in the quarter, making their call easier and more accurate.
2. Data-Driven Manager Roll-Ups: When managers review submissions, they see more than just the numbers. RevdUp displays each rep’s submitted forecast alongside their historical Forecast Reliability Profile. This gives managers an instant, data-backed indicator to spot optimism or sandbagging.
3. Confident Adjustments: Armed with this insight, managers adjust the team roll-up with confidence. They are no longer guessing but making informed decisions based on a predictive view of where the team will land.

You now have a framework to move beyond subjective forecast roll-ups and have more productive coaching conversations. By applying a Forecast Reliability Profile, you can stop guessing and call your number with data-backed confidence. The best way to experience this is to see it work with your own data.