

Forecasting vs. Navigation: Why Prediction Alone Isn’t Enough
By Adam Chickman May, 26 2025
In the early 2000s, two baseball teams leaned into analytics.
One had a movie made about them.
The other lost 100 games.
Everyone knows the Oakland A’s story: how Billy Beane used data to build a playoff team on a tiny budget. But no one talks about the Kansas City Royals.
They had data, too. They just used it to predict losses, not to change outcomes.
One used data to steer. The other used it to spectate.
Too often, revenue teams fall into the same trap—using data to only predict but not change outcomes.
Forecasting Helps You Predict Where You’ll Land
Now, to be clear, forecasting is essential (and we at RevdUp are proud to enable it in multiple ways!). It helps teams:
-
Plan headcount and hiring
-
Allocate budget and resources
-
Set expectations with the board
-
Establish operational discipline
Forecasting tools answer questions like:
-
Are we pacing to hit the number?
-
Do we have enough pipeline coverage?
The insight is directional—but it often ends there.
Forecasting tells you what is likely to happen, but not why it’s happening or how to change it.
And as many leaders know, being told you “need more pipeline” isn’t exactly a revelation. I mean, what revenue leader isn’t already trying to drive as much pipeline as possible?
What you really need is clarity on what’s causing the gap and what to fix first.
That’s where revenue navigation comes in.
Revenue Navigation Surfaces Gaps and Prioritizes Action
Revenue Navigation goes beyond tracking and reporting.
It proactively identifies what’s hurting performance—and what’s most worth fixing.
There are two key components:
1. It Proactively Surfaces Gaps Across Your GTM Engine
Revenue navigation continuously audits your business to detect issues that matter—without requiring manual digging.
It scans every KPI across your go-to-market motion, including:
-
Volume, value, conversion, and duration metrics
-
Every stage in the funnel—from creation to close
-
Every channel, including inbound, outbound, partner, etc.
-
Every level of the org: rep, team, region, segment, and more
But it doesn’t stop at flagging performance dips.
Every KPI is contextualized against three critical benchmarks:
-
Plan: Is this KPI ahead or behind its target?
-
Prior Performance: Is this trending up or down compared to prior periods?
-
Internal Benchmarks: How does this team member compare at this part of the process to their peers?
This multi-anchor approach helps you immediately see all gaps, troubling trends, and opportunities for improvement.
Without context, metrics are easy to misread. With context, they tell a clear story. (More here)
2. It Quantifies Revenue Impact So You Can Prioritize
Surfacing gaps is only half the job.
Revenue Navigation also helps you understand:
What is the magnitude of each gap or trend?
For every underperforming KPI, Revenue Navigation calculates projected revenue impact.
This allows you to:
-
Separate minor variances from mission-critical issues
-
Understand which bottlenecks are costing you the most
-
Focus your efforts where they’ll actually move the needle
Instead of sifting through 15 red metrics, you’re handed a ranked list of the issues that matter most.
It’s not just visibility. It’s prioritization with context and cost attached.
Imagine the Alternative
You’re looking at your dashboards.
Pipeline is soft. ASP is trending down. Win rate slipped 4 points. Velocity’s a bit slower in the enterprise segment.
So… now what?
Do you:
-
Pull exports and start filtering by segment, rep, or stage?
-
Compare everything to last quarter?
-
Rebuild pivot tables to see how it looks by region?
-
Schedule a cross-functional sync to discuss which metrics are “actually off”?
Even if you had the time to do all of that, you’d still be left wondering:
Which of these issues matters most?
And how much revenue is on the line if we don’t act?
Revenue Navigation eliminates that guesswork.
It shows you the right problems, in the right order, with the impact clearly quantified.
In Summary…
Forecasting tells you your trajectory. Navigation helps you improve it.
In a world where revenue leaders are flooded with dashboards and alerts, Revenue Navigation cuts through the noise—so you know what matters most, and what to do next.