For most revenue teams, forecasting still boils down to two oversimplified categories: what’s closed, and what’s in the pipeline. But in reality, that only tells part of the story — especially in fast-moving or high-velocity sales orgs.

To get a forecast you can trust — one that doesn’t just say where you are, but where you’re likely to land — you need to account for all three layers of the funnel:

1. Closed-Won Revenue

2. Open Opportunities (Forecasted to Close)

3. Future Pipeline (Not Yet Created, but Expected Based on Trends)

Let’s break down why each bucket matters — and how they work together to create a truly comprehensive, dynamic forecast.

1. Closed-Won Revenue: Your Anchored Foundation

This is the easy part. Deals that have already closed count as booked revenue. It’s the most reliable piece of your forecast because the dollars are in.

But relying on Closed-Won alone gives you zero visibility into your future — and makes it impossible to steer.

2. Open Opportunities: Weighted by Risk, Stage, and Signal

This is where most weighted forecasts live. You’re estimating the likelihood of closing open deals by using factors like:

• Deal stage

• Historical win rates

• Rep-entered forecast categories

• Activity velocity and recency

• Risk signals like deal aging or stalled engagement

This layer is critical, but it’s not just about probability — it’s about timing.

You need to understand when that revenue is likely to land, not just if it will. That’s why a strong forecasting model also accounts for:

• Sales cycle length

• Average time-to-close by stage, team, and sub-channel

• Expected deal velocity based on past performance

By factoring in duration metrics, you can start to see whether the revenue in your pipeline is actually on pace to land this quarter — or whether you’re looking at Q+1 bookings.

3. Future Pipeline: Forecasting What Hasn’t Been Created Yet

This is the most overlooked — and arguably most important — layer in any forecast.

It’s not enough to project revenue based on what’s already in the funnel. A complete forecast also needs to model pipeline that hasn’t even been created yet, but should be, based on historical creation trends.

This layer uses:

• Current opp creation pace by rep, channel, and segment

• Conversion rates from creation to closed-won

• Average sales cycles, broken down to the sub-channel level

By layering in expected pipeline — and mapping its likely timing and win rate — you get a much more realistic view of where revenue is likely to land, even if those opps don’t exist yet.

It answers the question:

“If our current trends continue, how much more pipeline will we create this quarter — and how much of that is likely to close in time?”

Why All Three Matter — Together

When you bring these three buckets together, you move beyond a simple roll-up. You get a dynamic, signal-based forecast that reflects how your team is actually performing — not just what’s in the CRM today.

A comprehensive forecast shows you:

• What’s already booked

• What’s pacing to close

• What still needs to be created

• When it will all land, based on historical trends and sales cycles

And most importantly — it helps you see gaps before they hit your number.

Instead of scrambling in Week 10 to find late-stage coverage, you can spot early-stage creation shortfalls in Week 2 and act.

The Bottom Line

The best forecasts don’t just tell you what’s possible.

They show you what’s likely — and when it’ll show up.

If your current forecast only looks at closed revenue and open pipeline, you’re missing a third of the picture.

Want to get a forecast that actually reflects the way your team sells?

Let’s talk.